site.btaGas Experts Forecast That 2015 Will Be Ever More Unpredictable Geopolitically

Gas Experts Forecast That 2015 Will Be Ever More Unpredictable  Geopolitically

Sofia, January 6 (BTA) - 2014 was a hard year with surprise
events, the South Stream gas pipeline project has not yet been
shut down, despite all the talking from politicians and
analysts, but still it is very difficult to forecast what will
happen, Prof. Nina Dyulgerova of the Chernorizets Hrabur Varna
Free Universuty told a news conference hosted by BTA on Tuesday.
 

In Dyulgerova's words, transforming the South Stream project
into a gas pipeline to Turkey is unlikely. In her view, in the
coming months the European Union will look for ways to reduce
the sanctions against Russia as the EU "suffers more than
Russia," which has other markets for export such as China.
Dyulgerova said that the falling oil prices of OPEC oil have led
 to serious changes in many investment projects, not only South
Stream, but also to reduced investment in the development of the
 Shah Deniz II gas field. She drew a comparison with previous
crises such as the war in Kosovo and in Iraq, and the current
developments in Ukraine, saying that all such periods are
characterized with stabilization or increase of the dollar.

Dr Plamen Dimitrov of the Bulgarian Geopolitical Society said
that if the same quantity of gas as the projected capacity of
South Stream, 63 million cubic metres, went via the Black Sea
and Turkey and ended up in Greece, the pipeline would face the
same difficulties as in Bulgaria because both Bulgaria and
Greece are EU member states and must comply with the European
legislation.

Dimitrov argued that Gazprom changes its strategy, conceding
that it is unable to break through the EU "fortress" and deliver
 gas directly to European countries, and instead decides to
deliver it "at the door to Europe," i.e., Turkey. Another move
on the part of Russia is re-directing the gas it mines in
Western Siberia to China, instead of to Europe, he said.

Dimitrov said that until 2020, nothing will change in the gas
supplies to Bulgaria, but noted that after that year Bulgaria
should be ready with a gas interconnector with Greece and thus
have a link with the Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline, the only
project to be implemented from the so-called Southern Gas
Corridor which will deliver gas from Azerbaijan to Europe.