site.btaExacta: Six Political Forces Likely in Next Parliament

Exacta: Six Political Forces Likely in Next Parliament

Sofia, March 24 (BTA) - The next Parliament will likely have six political forces, according to a poll by Exacta Research Group made public Friday, two days ahead of early general elections in Bulgaria. The poll was taken March 17-22 among 1,000 adult respondents in 91 population centres.

Of those who are determined to vote, 31.2 per cent will vote for GERB, 28.1 per cent for the coalition led by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), 10.5 per cent for the United Patriots, 7.6 per cent for the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, 6.5 per cent for Volya and 4 per cent for Reformist Bloc - People's Voice. Below the 4 per cent barrier for entry in Parliament are placed the coalition of ABV and Movement 21 (2.6 per cent), New Republic (2.6 per cent) and Yes, Bulgaria! (1.5 per cent). 2.4 per cent will pick the "none of the above" option on the ballots.

With these election results, having a government will require a broad coalition, analysts comment. They say that GERB is the large party with which the prospects for the new Parliament to form a government seem easier.

GERB has had a lead on BSP, be it marginal, throughout the election campaign. The lead widened to 3 per cent in the recent days and yet it remains within the margin of error, Exacta says.

The pollsters found that at the very end of the campaign the mobilization of the GERB and BSP electorates is equally high.

BSP were off with what seemed like a flying start, on the wings of euphoria from the victory of the Socialists-backed candidate Rumen Radev in the late-2016 presidential elections but this effect wore off in the course of the campaign and the party seems decreasingly capable of attracting undecided and conformist voters, analysts commented.

They describe Volya's voters as "soft electorate" and expect the result for this party to remain dynamic to the very election day, resulting in changes up or down.

Even though it is on the very threashold of entry in Parliament, Reformist Bloc - People's Party is more likely than not to be in the next legislature.

In the final stretch of the campaign, the Exacta pollsters identify a mobilization among the voters of ABV - Movement 21 and New Republic. This makes analysis to expect that both formations are likely to improve their standing in the days prior to the elections.

Exacta says that the poll did not produced sufficient figures to allow them to analyze in greater detail the performance of the DOST coalition: the electorate of this formation is hard to gauge with the tools that the pollsters have. There are, however, indirect indications that DOST might produce a surprise election result.