site.btaBulgaria May Lose 20-25 Per Cent of Its Population by 2040

Sofia, March 28 (BTA) - The Council of Ministers Wednesday considered a Population Projection for Bulgaria in the 2015-2040 Period, prepared by the Institute for Population and Human Studies at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, the Government Information Service said.

Implementing a resolution of the National Assembly, the Cabinet submitted the document to Parliament. The projection is based on a comparative study of official estimates of Eurostat, the National Statistical Institute, the UN and the World Bank.

Basically, the experts conclude that this country's population trends in the next couple of decades are likely to be similar to the ones observed so far. Varying by estimate, Bulgaria is expected to lose a substantial 20-25 per cent of its present population by 2040. Even though the death rate is to decline for both men and women, the sex distribution of the population will remain stable. The share of people aged under 20 will not change, whereas the proportion of people aged over 65 will increase significantly. Hence, the working age population is projected to decrease in both size and share. The population decline will affect almost all administrative regions with the exception of the capital, and this process is expected to persist throughout the period.

The various projection estimates show that despite an expected improvement in the death rate and the birth rate, Bulgaria's population has probably reached the so-called "inverse growth momentum" stage. Under its influence, even if replacement level fertility is periodically reached (which is not expected in the near future), the population size is expected to continue to decline in absolute terms.

Bulgaria is one of 11 EU Member States in which population decline is projected, the experts note.