site.btaMedia Review: July 4

The unsuccessful vote for the proposed GERB-UDF cabinet in the first government-forming mandate and its consequences were the main topic in the media on Thursday.

Turbulence in the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) and Velichie

One of the big surprises in the vote was the rift within the ranks of MRF – the party’s honorary chair Ahmed Dogan urged the MPs to vote against, while one of its two chairpersons Delyan Peevski stressed that the party will vote in favour. Some MPs listened to Dogan, others – to Peevski.

24 Chasa writes that Dzhevdet Chakarov, the other of MRF’s two chairpersons, spoke about his colleague Peevski for the first time since they were elected. Until now, Chakarov has maintained a quieter stance than the two, but on Tuesday he spoke out against Peevski's one-man rule, the daily adds. „The principles of governance in the party have to change, because one-man rule leads to these processes,” he pointed out. Chakarov admitted that there is tension in the Movement for Rights and Freedoms due to the blocked work of the collective bodies of the party.  In his words, processes splitting the movement are underway, but he expressed hope that reason will prevail.

On NOVA Television’s morning show, political analyst Georgi Harizanov and journalist Emiliya Milcheva discussed the tension in MRF. "Dogan's silence and his willingness to speak through other people shows that he will find it difficult to stand up to defend his people," Milcheva said. Harizanov acknowledged the possibility that Peevski could remove his opponents from the party. "Politicians can avoid talking through the media, avoid bringing up their scandals and dividing themselves into Euro-Atlanticists and those who support Putin, but we overestimate them," he said, adding: "We talk about petty dramas - who has wronged the other."

Mediapool.bg features an article entitled “Peevski purges MRF MPs who voted against the Zhelyazkov cabinet”. The media outlet pointed out that hours after the unsuccessful vote in Parliament, MRF’s Regional Council in Targovishte has removed its confidence from MP Dzheyhan Ibryamov, who is also MRF’s Deputy Chair – one of the party members who did not support GERB-UDF’s proposed cabinet. His wife, Birshen Ibryamova, a long-standing personal secretary of Dogan, was also dismissed from the party a few days ago. Mediapool quotes Peevski as saying that the 30 MRF MPs who supported the GERB-UDF draft cabinet will keep representing the party in Parliament. Fourteen MPs from the MRF voted against the government, among them the other Chair, Dzhevdet Chakarov. At the moment there is no official information whether he has also been stripped of his confidence, as well as the other MPs of the party who did not comply with Peevski's wishes, the media outlet writes.

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Trud reports that Velichie will try to expel its chairman Nikolay Markov and deputy chairwoman Viktoria Vassileva on Wednesday, quoting the party’s ideologue Ivelin Mihaylov. If this does not happen, the entire parliamentary group will be dissolved and the MPs will become independent, he added. The new drama comes after Velichie MPs voted against GERB's cabinet, the daily notes. Markov expressed willingness to support the first government-forming mandate, while Mihaylov claimed that such actions will go against the party’s promises made to voters.

24 Chasa also covers the story. It writes that ever since Velichie entered Parliament, the party has been torn by scandals - first Markov complained that he was blackmailed by other parties, then Mihaylov accused half the parliamentary group of voting with GERB and MRF, and a few days ago added that Markov threatened to kill him. If Velichie excludes Markov and Vassileva, it will find itself without its leading figures in the National Assembly, the daily adds. However, they may drag other MPs along with them. If any more MPs leave the parliamentary group, it will fall apart, as the minimum under the rules is 10, and Velichie currently has 13. In such a development, they would all become independent MPs.

What’s Next?

24 Chasa writes that President Rumen Radev will not rush to hand the second government-forming mandate to the MRF before the situation with the potential split in the parliamentary group is clarified. If Peevski excludes the 15 MPs who heeded the advice of honorary chair Ahmed Dogan to vote against a government of GERB-UDF's prime minister-designate Rosen Zhelyazkov, this automatically will make the coalition Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) a second parliamentary force with 39 MPs, the newspaper underlines. It quotes constitutionalists that the mandate is handed to the second largest parliamentary group, not to the party that came second in the election.

The daily goes on to write CC-DB Floor Leader Nikolay Denkov has “publicly suggested that MRF will remain only with those 30 MPs who supported Zhelyazkov, CC-DB will take the second mandate and will form a government”. It adds that there’s a possibility of an anti-GERB government, led by the coalition.

This, however, is not entirely correct. Here's Denkov's statement in question, part of his interview on the Bulgarian National Television on Wednesday: 'Let's see how the situation in the MRF will develop, because it may turn out that the second mandate will come to us. We will make a government when it is possible to implement what is useful for the people and business. In this National Assembly, I do nоt see how that will happen. Unless GERB radically cleans up its corrupt practices, which I do not see how it will, and unless the MRF gets rid of Peevski, who is the symbol of what is currently holding us back. I do not see that happening in this National Assembly,” he said.

On the anti-GERB/MRF government, he added: “We are standing against certain policies and actions of certain parties - GERB and MRF are on that list because in terms of corruption they are number one. Vazrazhdane are the others we cannot work with because they protect Russian interests. If GERB and MRF clean up the corrupt individuals who are on their front line, we can talk."

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Telegraph quotes GERB leader Boyko Borissov as saying that the new “assemblage” will be between CC-DB and Vazrazhdane. “[CC-DB co-leader] Kiril Petkov stood and watched with Denkov how [Vazrazhdane leader Kostadin] Kostadinov was ordering around,“ he said. The daily quotes Borissov as saying that his party will not enter any government-forming negotiations in this National Assembly anymore. "Yesterday it became clear that we are going to elections," he stressed.

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On bTV’s morning show, former agriculture minister Mehmed Dikme and political scientists Rumyana Kolarova and Tatyana Burudzhieva discussed the aftermath of Tuesday’s vote in Parliament. "It is 90% certain that we are going to elections, but let's not forget that the decisions are made by people who change their minds very often - in the morning they say one thing and in the evening they express a completely different opinion," Dikme pointed out. "To look at things purely arithmetically - without Vazrazhdane the third mandate cannot be fulfilled. But who would want to do government with them," Burudzhieva asked. According to Dikme, there is still a small possibility that there will be a regular government if the government-forming mandate goes to the CC-DB and the coalition takes on this task. "Here we have to consider a few points. First, it means Ahmet Dogan very actively taking the helm and telling his people to leave in order to turn the MRF into a third political force. So the mandate will go to the CC-DB," Kolarova said.

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24 Chasa quotes CC-DB MP Lena Borislavova as saying that for Peevski there is no better move than to make CC-DB a second political force. "We have already said that with 39 MPs in this National Assembly we do not have the legitimacy given by the Bulgarian citizens to determine what the direction is. So rather I don't expect us to have the ability to form a government," she added.

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In an interview with the Bulgarian National Radio, Alpha Research sociologist Pavel Valchev said that the third government-forming is very difficult to implement. He sees no possibility for consolidation against GERB and MRF within the third term. "We are heading towards elections and the political crisis is deepening," the sociologist said. "Apart from the inability of political players to reach an understanding for the sake of stable regular governance, we are already seeing processes within the parties themselves of a kind of rift, confrontations. The crisis continues to deepen rather than finding any constructive solutions and positions," he added. In his words, a change of the political model to get out of the crisis requires a stable political situation, which does not currently exist in Bulgaria.

Economy

Mediapool.bg has a story based on a BTA interview focused on the real estate market on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. It says essentially that there is a dropping number of Russian home owners and increasing number of young Bulgarian buyers and buyers from Western Europe. The story reads, "’Little Russia’ is behind ‘young Bulgaria’ and ‘older Europe’ on the holiday property market along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. Half of buyers of seaside holiday apartments are high-income Bulgarians up to 30 years old, working mainly in the IT sector, and the rest are retired people from Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands.”

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A headline in Capital.bg says that housing prices in Bulgaria “went crazy again”. “The National Statistical Institute (NSI) reported a record-setting 16% year-on-year appreciation in the country in the first quarter. The main explanation for the upward trend is that people are in a hurry to buy before the euro changeover and the availability of bank loans is helping that. Another possible explanation is that home purchases are used for money laundering. The number of transactions increased by 8.7%. The biggest growth is in transactions and prices in Sofia, Burgas and Varna,” the story says.